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Kalshi vs Polymarket arbitrage calculator

Enter the ask price on each venue and your size — the calculator applies Kalshi's taker-fee formula and your gas estimate to show the fee-adjusted winner and the edge in basis points.

Kalshi effective / contract44.72¢
Polymarket effective / share42.00¢
Net-cheaper venuepolymarket
Edge per contract2.72¢
Edge626.4 bps
On this size$13.58

Top-of-book only — real fills sweep depth, and displayed prices move while you leg. Depth-aware, fee-adjusted routing is what Mithril automates.

Why displayed prices lie

The same event often trades on both Kalshi and Polymarket at slightly different prices — but the venue showing the lower price is not always the cheaper fill. Kalshi charges a taker fee of 0.07 × contracts × p × (1 − p) (rounded up to the cent); Polymarket charges no exchange trading fee but costs you the spread and, in some setups, Polygon gas.

Worked example: a market shows 43¢ on Kalshi and 42¢ on Polymarket. For 500 contracts, Kalshi's fee adds ≈1.7¢ per contract at these prices — so Kalshi's effective price is ≈44.7¢ against Polymarket's 42¢ (plus any gas). Here the displayed gap understates Polymarket's advantage. Reverse the displayed prices and the fee can flip the answer entirely.

This calculator does the top-of-book version of that math. What it can't see:

  • Depth. Your size may sweep several levels — effective price worsens with size on both venues.
  • Legging risk. Prices move while you execute the second leg. A "locked" arb that takes seconds to leg is not locked.
  • Resolution-criteria mismatches. The two venues sometimes define the "same" event differently. Read both rule sets before treating a spread as an arb — details in cross-venue arbitrage.

For the full treatment, see Kalshi vs Polymarket fees and smart order routing.

Fee details reflect public documentation as of July 2026 — confirm against the venues' current schedules before trading.

Stop doing this math by hand

Mithril compares the fee-adjusted net price on Kalshi and Polymarket on every order and routes to the cheaper venue — with an execution receipt on every fill.