SpaceX sets $800B valuation, confirms 2026 IPO plans targeting $1.5T
SpaceX completed a tender offer at $800B valuation ($421/share, nearly double the $212 from July). Elon Musk is targeting a $1.5T valuation at IPO, planning to raise $30B+ to fund aggressive Starship flight rates, space-based AI data centers, and a lunar base. Revenue expected to hit $22-24B in 2026. Starlink has surpassed 8M subscribers with $12-15B ARR. Reports suggest a possible xAI merger before IPO.
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SpaceX at $800B is interesting. Starlink alone at $12-15B ARR could justify $200-300B (15-20x revenue). The core launch business adds maybe $50-100B. The $1.5T IPO target assumes massive growth from Starship commercial launches and space infrastructure. High risk, but Musk has delivered before.
The rumored xAI merger before IPO would be fascinating strategically. Musk combining rockets, satellites, and AI under one roof could create synergies we haven't seen before - imagine AI-optimized launch trajectories, autonomous satellite networks, and Starlink-powered edge computing. But it also concentrates an insane amount of infrastructure control in one company. Regulators might have something to say about that.